I do not trust political polls! The primary reason I do not is because of the propensity of the pollsters to skew the results through the phrasing of the questions and the sampling. Polls like many governmental studies can be made to say whatever those polling want them to say. They are designed to shape thinking and thereby shape actions. They are designed to convey an idea that will bolster their objective and agenda. Polls are skewed by the skewers to screw the viewers.
Virtually every poll has President Trump trailing many of the Democratic hopefuls and significantly behind Joe Biden. Are they accurate? I cannot say, definitively they are right or wrong and say, as I did in 2015-16, it’s way too early to begin polling. But, polling is what the media and politicians rely on for interest and donations. Polls are the driving force designed to secure support, raise funds, and discourage those on the other side. Do they work? Yes, historically they have worked very well and succeeded in keeping people from the polls on more than one occasion. That is part of their design.
Today, we are being told, even by Fox News, the supposed Conservative Network that Trump is underwater and has little chance of winning. They all seem to forget that during the 2016 campaign the New York Times predicted, on election day, that Hillary had an 85% chance of winning the White House. She was a lock. She was already measuring curtains for the White House and planning her Victory Celebration and Move In.
When I observe, from any reliable source, the participation in the Trump rallies compared to the participation in any Democrat’s rally, I have hope. People are lining up almost 2 full days in advance of the Trump rallies to guarantee they will get in. The venue regardless of size is filled to overflowing. Joe Biden and other Democrats are having difficulty filling 4-H Club halls much less athletic stadiums.
Yes, there are those among the Trump supporters that are disappointed, I am too, on some fronts. We are disappointed that some of the promises have not been kept or fulfilled. On many of those, I see him as having given it his best shot but with no help from the GOP Establishment. Those in the GOP who have failed to rally behind the promises made in the past election are the targets of my angst. I would like to see many of them, if not most of them, primaried and replaced by candidates who are truly conservative, patriotic, and supporters of the constitution. I want men and women in Congress who have the courage and integrity to keep their word and fight for us.
One of the driving forces in most presidential elections has been the economy. Today, the American economy is booming and hopefully, there will not be concerted efforts of the nefarious to subvert that progress and bring about regression of our progress. I revisited some historical information regarding the one-term presidents in our history and found a consistent theme in the explanations of their defeat. It was the Economy most of the time.
Only ten of our 45 presidents who ran for a second term failed to win reelection. The ten were: John Adams, John Quincy Adams, Martin Van Buren, Grover Cleveland, Benjamin Harrison, William Howard Taft, Herbert Hoover, Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, and George H.W. Bush. The common thread in each of those cases was the economy and that president was representing three-terms of his party being in the White House. Two terms for his predecessor and one term for him. People wanted a change and change came.
John Adams’ defeat was the latter of those as he followed George Washington and add to that mix the Alexander Hamilton division of the party and you see why he lost. John Quincy Adams suffered because of the economic downturn in his 1828 bid for a second term. Martin Van Buren in 1840 failed to win reelection because of the economic panic of 1837.
Grover Cleveland lost in 1888 by supporting tariff reductions because people saw that as a threat to jobs in factories. Then in 1892, the roles were reversed and Harrison’s dismal economic record propelled Cleveland to a non-consecutive second term. Taft in 1912 won as Teddy Roosevelt’s successor but after his first term Roosevelt became a mortal enemy because of the abandonment of his policies by Taft and Woodrow Wilson was the benefactor of that feud.
In 1932 the Great Depression brought down Herbert Hoover. In 1976 Jimmy Carter ascended to the presidency but his dismal economic policies found himself a one-term president at the hands of Ronald Reagan. Then, George H.W. Bush’s reneged on his pledge to ‘not raise taxes’ and Bill Clinton was awarded the office.
If the economy stays strong and if the GOP will back the president, even with the vigorous and dedicated efforts of the Main Stream Media, Hollywood, the Pollsters, and the Politicians of both parties, Trump can win! I place no stock in the polls because I know that Polls are political tools not true scientific attempts to reflect the true sentiment in the nation.
Polls, as I said earlier often have a nefarious and purposeful design. They are attempts to shape thinking and opinion and thereby actions. They are skewed by the skewers to screw the viewers (voters). I trust God, not Government. I trust truth, not polls. You may or may not like Trump but consider the alternative and if you do so honestly you cannot determine that any of the Democratic candidates would be a better choice.
God bless you and God bless America!